By the Numbers: Supernaw Dominated Los Altos & Eastern Precincts That Had High Voter Turnouts, Opponent Chico Dominated Western/Zaferia Precincts That Had Lower Voter Turnouts <p><small>Third place finisher Lindemann adds these comments, supporting Supernaw</small>

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By the Numbers: Supernaw Dominated Los Altos & Eastern Precincts That Had High Voter Turnouts, Opponent Chico Dominated Western/Zaferia Precincts That Had Lower Voter Turnouts

Third place finisher Lindemann adds these comments

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(April 19, 2015, 1:55 p.m.) -- An analysis of 4th Council district precinct results by LBREPORT.com indicates that Daryl Supernaw won the 4th Council district April 14 special election by dominating Los Altos and eastern precincts where voters turned out in large numbers -- in three eastside precincts, turnout (polling place + vote-by mail ballots) topped 30% -- while opponent Herlinda Chico dominated western/Zaferia area precincts where voters turned out in smaller numbers.

Mr. Supernaw dominated high turnout precincts east of Clark Ave...two with roughly 70% of the vote. The reverse was true at the western end of the district, where Herlinda Chico drew roughly 65% of the votes in areas south of PCH, west of Traffic Circle and the Zaferia neighborhood) where voter turnout didn't come close to eastern precincts.

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Numbers aren't totally final yet (some additional vote by mail ballots remain to be counted, but from ballots already tallied, Supernaw decisively carried precincts 302A, 153A, 305A, 321A and 319A which had turnouts of 34.8%, 30.8%, 30.2%, 25.1% and 24.6% of their registered voters respectively...and in those precincts Supernaw drew 71.8%, 70.7%, 65.5%, 61.9% and 55.4% of votes cast.

Source: City Clerk precinct map

Ms. Chico solidly carried precincts 159A 158A, 0091A, 621A and 618A by 71.5%, 69.6%, 65%, 64.5% and 63.6% of votes cast...but with voter turnout of roughly 7% of registered voters in precincts 159A and 158A, 10.1% in 0091A, 8.8% in 621A and 12% in 618A.

Source: City Clerk precinct map

Districtwide in the 2015 race, more voters cast vote-by-mail ballots than polling-place ballots (2695 to 1541) and Mr. Supernaw led in both those categories (1372 to 1136). Supernaw ended up with 52.19% of the votes cast and counted, Chico with 43.06% and Lindemann with 4.74%.

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In the 2012 regular election cycle, Mr. Supernaw also carried Los Altos precincts but by narrower margins against incumbent Patrick O'Donnell. O'Donnell pulled decent Los Altos voter shares but was boosted by high ballot percentages in lower turnout western precincts (in two precincts some over 80%), giving him a 2012 margin of victory.

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There are various political interpretations of the 2015 race. One holds that Mr. Supernaw was simply unbeatable in his home base of Los Altos. Another more political interpretation is that Ms. Chico's support from seven of eight Council incumbents + Mayor Garcia + former Councilman-now-Assemblyman O'Donnell + current and former Sac'to legislators + police, fire and other unions -- even when amplified by large campaign contributions and independent expenditures -- left many eastside voters cold...or may have dissuaded some voters.

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Some theorize that O'Donnell's endorsement also may have backfired, reminding voters that he gave up his Council seat roughly two years early to seek Sac'to office, triggering the need for the costly special election.

But at the end of the day, interpretations are just that.

Mr. Supernaw is expected to be sworn into office in early May. In April 2016, voters in districts 2, 4, 6 and 8 will decide who'll represent them for the next four year terms. Historically, winners of LB special elections have gone on to win reelection to full four year terms: Suja Lowenthal (2006 into 2008); Robert Garcia (2009 into 2010); Dee Andrews (2007 into 2008...and reelected in 2012 with no ballot opponent.)

Finally, Richard Lindemann, who got 200 votes (4.7% of the vote) on a strictly limited budget (thus no official voter pamphlet candidate statement) and declined to accept campaign contributions, emailed LBREPORT.com in pertinent part:

Please add my name to your list in supporting Daryl's victory. He will make an outstanding councilman and we should all be very happy that common sense won out over politics as usual. I hope that this is a true turning point in the great city of Long Beach...Would I run again, YES, not as naively, but will I run again? Since DARYL SUPERNAW won...ABSOLUTELY NOT! I will be supporting him for the NEXT 9 YEARS. I wish him and Long Beach the very best of luck!