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Telephone Polling On Mayor's Race Reported In June By LBREPORT.com Apparently Came From Foster Hired Firm; 40% Support Results Given To PressTelegram; Mayoral Candidate Schipske Says Foster's Less Than Majority Support Not Good For An Incumbent



(July 14, 2013) -- Following-up on a story first reported on June 18 by LBREPORT.com, it appears that polling conducted by telephone in mid-June came from a firm hired by Mayor Bob Foster. On July 13, the PressTelegram published a story on its website headlined, "Poll shows Mayor Bob Foster with large lead in potential Long Beach mayoral race" and in text stated that the poll showed Foster "with strong leads over potential challengers if he were to run in the April mayoral race" with Foster the choice of 40% of likely voters while Councilwoman Gerrie Schipske drew 20%.

Mayor Foster hasn't said publicly if he'll seek a third term by write-in (as Mayor Beverly O'Neill successfully did) but told a televised interview (StraightTalkTV with Art Levine) in late 2012 that he'd make his decision [although not necessarily announce it] by the end of that year.

Within hours of the PT story's on the Mayor's poll appearing online, Councilwoman Gerrie Schipske's Mayoral campaign issued a release saying it was "pleased that the poll shows Gerrie Schipske leading all announced candidates for Mayor by a considerable margin" and adding "the [PT] story's headline implying 40% is good for an incumbent mayor could not be more incorrect. Any reputable pollster would say the opposite is true. An incumbent with well under 50% whose name is not even on the ballot is in very serious trouble."

Schipske's release also noted that although the PT reported that the poll was commissioned by Foster's campaign committee, "Foster doesn't have a campaign committee nor has he filed the required forms which would disclose how this poll was financed. The Schipske for Mayor campaign encourages Mr. Foster in the spirit of open and transparent politics to disclose who paid for the poll."

LBREPORT.com's experience is that campaign-paid polls generally decline to provide details routinely disclosed by third-party [independently conducted] polls, including [very important] all questions asked, their order, responses to each one and other related polling methodology. Campaigns instead frequently provide media outlets with a "polling letter" [prepared by their hired polling firm and addressed to "interested parties"] summarizing the poll results.

During the 2012 election cycle, the Congressional campaigns for candidates Alan Lowenthal and Gary DeLong provided media outlets with "polling letters" inviting disparate conclusions; the DeLong campaign said its results showed its candidate was very competitive; the Lowenthal campaign said its candidate had a double-digit lead; LBREPORT.com reported the dueling polling letters with caveats; an L.A. Times reporter told us at the time the paper's editors had decided not to publish "polls" conducted by election candidates; Lowenthal ultimately prevailed in the election by over 10 percentage points.

LBREPORT.com readers (thank you) began reporting details on what they were asked in the polling telephone calls within hours. LBREPORT.com strongly encourages readers to take notes on what they're asked and in what order and then tell us so we can report it. Results of those and other questions asked weren't reported by the PressTelegram and it's unclear if the PT's source provided the paper with those details.

In mid-June, an LBREPORT.com reported that the person on the phone:

  • Asked about Councilwoman Gerrie Schipske [candidate order may not be significant since polls usually rotate candidates' names]

  • The greatest number of questions asked were about Mayor Bob Foster running as a write-in.

  • The three candidates on which the pollster sought opinions were Foster, Schipske and Doug Otto.

  • Regarding Damon Dunn, the pollster asked, "Have you heard of Damon Dunn or his business background?" He did not ask for an opinion on Dunn.

  • The pollster also asked, "Do you know about the years of service Doug Otto has given to the community?"
  • Another reader reported receiving a call asking multiple questions focused on Bob Foster, including about public perceptions of his honesty and if he should or could be allowed to be write-in candidate.

  • There were questions about whether Long beach was better or worse off than it was "a few" or "several years" ago.

Further as it develops on LBREPORT.com.



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