SCAG (Regional Planning Entity Without Aviation Regulatory Power) Offers A Draft 2040 Estimate Of Demand For Multiple Area Airports, Claims Long Beach Could Handle 5 Mil Passengers/Yr. (Roughly Double Current Level)...And 6.6 Mil If City Lost Airport Ordinance Protecting City And Surrounding Areas From Unlimited Flights
Agency has history of overestimates, draft estimates applied pro-industry/development premise that all airport activity growth is good, failed to include pollution/traffic/infrastructure burdens/costs that LB area carries from adjacent twin Ports
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(July 27, 2015) -- The Southern CA Association of Governments (SCAG), a regional planning entity without aviation regulatory power, has offered a draft 2040 estimate of what it calls passenger demand for multiple airports in the LA/OC/Inland Empire area, which claims Long Beach Airport could handle 5.0 million annual passengers a year -- roughly double its current level -- with its Airport ordinance in place, and 6.6 million passengers annually with its current terminal if the City lost its Airport ordinance that currently protects Long Beach and surrounding communities from unlimited flights at all hours of the day and night on all runways. LB Airport currently handles about 2.5 million total passengers annually; SCAG's previous growth estimate (2012) was 4.2 million passengers by 2035 with the Airport ordinance in place.
The draft estimates for various airports from SCAG, which has a history of overestimates on aviation planning matters, applies the following pro-industry/development premise: "The focus of the vision and goals is to treat the aviation system like a for-profit business, rather than a public utility. The airlines can easily relocate assets between airports and world regions with little or no warning. A fundamental premise is that any passenger that uses a SCAG region airport is good for the regional economy." [Source: SCAG staff transmittal memo to Transportation Committee, p. 1]
[LBREPORT.com comment: This premise omits regional and local health impacts, pollution, reduced property tax revenue in impacted areas and quality of life considerations and would arguably disproportionately impact Long Beach and surrounding communities which already bear multiple pollution, traffic and infrastructure burdens from adjacent twin ports.]
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SCAG's draft estimates don't take an explicit position on LB's Airport ordinance; the document estimates LGB could handle 5.0 million annual passenger with the ordinance in place and, like previous SCAG estimates, assumes the grandfathered ordinance will remain in place...but also cites supposed capacity without the ordinance in place.
The draft document has drawn early criticism from LAX area impacted residents who favor "regionalizing" airport usage [something some air carriers haven't helped in failing to use outlying airports including Palmdale and Ontario.]
In a quick response, retired Long Beach Councilwoman Rae Gabelich, who worked in the airline industry for roughly 30 years and served two terms (2004-2012) on the Long Beach City Council (and for several years served as LB's SCAG representative), commented on Facebook (July 26): "The SCAG projections are for LGB to handle twice as many passengers within 25 years as they are capable of providing for today. This is one of the reasons to get involved with your neighborhood groups, lbneighborhoodsfirst.com and HUSH2 to keep your opinion in front of our mayor and city council members. Join the movement......keep our airport under control."
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Based on LB Airport's own data, current LGB reported annual passengers for first six months of 2015 were 1.223 mil total passengers (enplaned + departed) Jan-June 2015, down from 1.383 mil Jan-June 2014. Total annual LGB passenger traffic was 2.82 million in 2014; 2.94 million in 2013 and 3.2 million (record high) in 2012. [Source: LB Airport activity reports.]
At a July 23 meeting at SCAG's downtown L.A. headquarters, SCAG staff presented a draft of its regional aviation estimates to SCAG's 65 member "Transportation Committee" (on which Long Beach currently has no representatives.) SCAG staff's transmittal memo stated in pertinent part:
SCAG staff, with the assistance of consultant team, has developed a regional aviation demand forecast
in 2040 as 136.2 MAP (million annual passengers) based on industry accepted data, tools and methodology. This technical work was presented to the Aviation Technical Advisory Committee (ATAC) on April 25, 2015, which was positively received. As a next step in the demand forecast process, staff has developed four (4) possible scenario options (Unconstrained, Physical/Policy, New Hub and Fast Growth Regionalization) to facilitate a policy discussion at the Special TC meeting today [July 23]. Staff is seeking policy direction on these options in order to prepare the Aviation Element for the 2016 RTP/SCS. One practical option is to adopt a range for each of the regional airports based on the four scenario options presented in a map towards the end of this memo.
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Long Beach currently has two representatives to SCAG's 80+ member governing "Regional Council": Councilmembers Lena Gonzalez (1st dist.) and Rex Richardson (9th dist.), both chosen by Mayor Garcia. Neither are members of SCAG's Transportation Committee (comprised of elected officials from across the LA/OC/Inland Empire areas, some as far off as Indio and El Centro. When SCAG's governing Regional Council eventually takes up the document forwarded by SCAG's Transportation Committee, LB SCAG reps Gonzalez and Richardson will have co-equal votes with electeds from 80+ other cities.
As of dawn Monday (July 27) it's unclear to what extent LB Airport staff or LB city management/staff were involved in the SCAG draft document, or whether policy-setting Long Beach Councilmembers were informed of the SCAG process on this issue. There has been no Council policy discussion of the advancing SCAG report to date.
A SCAG staff transmittal memo for the July 23 meeting stated in pertinent part:
At the June 4, 2015 Transportation Committee (TC) meeting, staff presented the overarching vision and
goals, airport capacity analysis for the four urbanized capacity constrained airports, and overall regional
aviation demand in 2040 in preparation of the Aviation Element of the 2016-2040 RTP/SCS. The focus
of the vision and goals is to treat the aviation system like a for-profit business, rather than a public utility.
The airlines can easily relocate assets between airports and world regions with little or no warning. A
fundamental premise is that any passenger that uses a SCAG region airport is good for the regional
economy.
Four (4) of the region's airports are capacity constrained, meaning that demand to use them is greater
than the airfield or terminals will allow. The other airports in the region also have theoretical capacities
but given the current trend, it is highly unlikely that demand will exceed capacity at these airports in
2040. Airfield capacity is determined by looking at the number/length/width/orientation/spacing of
runways, typical arrival/departure patterns (usually dictated by weather or noise impacts), taxiway
configuration, percentage of time there is poor visibility, mix of commercial airline flights versus general
aviation, difficulty of the airspace adjacent to the airport, etc. Terminal capacity is determined by
analyzing the number and size of gates/parking positions, aircraft fleet mix, airline characteristics/schedules/turn times, load factors (percentage of occupied seats), and the size of gate hold rooms and the flexibility for different airline/aircraft types. The terminal capacity in general is more subjective to determine than airfield capacity. Current research has demonstrated that access to the airport
is not a barrier for capacity. Passengers will continue to purchase tickets even if airport access is challenging (for example drive an alternate route or stay at an airport adjacent hotel). The capacity numbers were presented and have subsequently been updated to reflect additional comments received from the airports. Note that legal constraints are not taken into account during this task. The following
table summarizes the capacity to handle passengers at each of these four capacity constrained/urbanized airports.
Source: Graphic in SCAG staff memo and Power Point
The future demand for flights from residents and non-residents, that are traveling for business/leisure/visiting friends and relatives is determined based on population growth, the U.S. GDP (plus the world economic outlook as well as the California and SCAG region economies [including jobs, income, personal wealth]) and historical trends. Using these inputs, the overall regional demand is
generated as a total number of potential passengers for the SCAG region as a whole. In Southern California more than half of the passengers using our airports are visitors to the region- the U.S. GDP is by far the most important predictor of potential visitors to our region. Furthermore, unlike many other regions in the U.S. there is a relatively long-term positive outlook for continued growth in our region, which should bode well for greater future air travel demand to and from our region.
Using this approach, in 2040, the total regional aviation demand is forecast to be approximately 136.2 MAP (million annual passengers). As a reference, the regional total demand was 88 MAP in 2013. So the projected growth in air travel demand between 2013 and 2040 is approximately 55%, which is equivalent to a 1.6% annual growth rate, consistent with aviation forecasts being conducted in other large metropolitan areas. It should be noted that this is a significantly higher rate of growth than the general population growth, which is estimated at an annual rate of 0.7% during this same period. However, compared to previous RTP cycles this forecast is relatively conservative, but consistent with the overall trends in the industry. The Aviation Technical Advisory Committee (ATAC) reviewed this forecast at their April 25, 2015 meeting and generally expressed support for the forecast. In addition, they provided valuable input which was incorporated into this document.
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SCAG's previous estimates have been wrong...by sizable factors. In 1998, SCAG forecast 157.7 million annual regional passengers for 2020; in 2001, it boosted that figure to 167 million by 2025, and in 2004 raised it further to 170 million by 2030, before starting to reduce its estimate in its 2012-2035 "regional transportation plan" (RTP), which it calls its "baseline" scenario, to 145.9 million by 2035. Its 2040 now estimates 136 million by 2040 saying its demand forecast has "evolved," citing population forecast has declined since 2012 and "events since 9/11 including the sharp increase in fuel prices in the early 2000s followed by the financial crisis, have resulted in consistently less aggressive forecasts of aviation demand." [Source: SCAG graphic, draft report p. 10]
SCAG staff's July 23 memo continued:
...A point of clarification is that the regional total demand forecast in 2040 was developed with the basic premise that there will be no unmet demand in the region. In other words, the regional total aviation demand in 2040 was generated independent of the number of airports, their geographic locations, and potential capacity constraints. Clarification was also sought about why the capacity analysis was limited to the four constrained urban airports. As explained earlier, the reason for limiting the capacity analysis to these four airports is that, given the current trend, from a technical standpoint, it is highly unlikely that demand will exceed at the other regional airports by 2040. Questions were also raised why some of the airports were not allocated any passenger in 2040.
The work presented at the June meeting was intended to set the stage for a discussion of policy options to
generate a fair, equitable and technically sound allocation of demand to each of the regional airports. Staff is seeking policy direction to move forward with aviation planning work for the region to be considered for inclusion in the Draft 2016 RTP/SCS. [Source: SCAG staff transmittal letter, p. 3]
SCAG staff's recommended action to its Transportation Committee:
-- Reach consensus that the draft forecast overall regional aviation demand
is 136.2 MAP in 2040
-- Use policy considerations to narrow the field of aviation growth options
-- The Physical/Policy Constraint Forecast is the most technically accurate
based on industry standards
-- Prepare the Aviation Element (including the forecasts and trip tables) for
inclusion into the DRAFT 2016- 2040 RTP/SCS
To view the SCAG staff's July 23 draft document (transmittal memo and power points), see below.
Exactly which SCAG bodies will next consider this matter, and when, is developing. LBREPORT.com will provide detailed coverage. Further to follow on LBREPORT.com
