By the Numbers: 4th Council District Challenger Supernaw Carried Most Eastern Precincts/Los Altos Areas While Incumbent O'Donnell Prevailed With Large Ballot Totals In Usually Lower Turnout Western Precincts
|(June 18, 2012) -- On June 19, the City Clerk will ask the City Council to certify the results of the June 5 runoff election for the 4th Council district.
In the runoff, incumbent Patrick O'Donnell prevailed over challenger Daryl Supernaw by a 13% margin district wide. O'Donnell finished second in traditionally higher turnout eastern/Los Altos precincts but overcame this with a large number of ballots cast from traditionally lower-turnout western precincts.
In some western precincts, the number of ballots cast for O'Donnell was roughly several hundred percent higher than the votes O'Donnell received in the April initial election, a
In the June runoff:
So how did incumbent O'Donnell prevail overall?
O'Donnell carried nearly every precinct in the southwestern portion of the 4th Council district. It's not possible to make precise comparisons based on precinct numbers alone because precinct boundaries were changed slightly for the Countywide election: 24 precincts in April were split into 30 precincts for the June election. Thus, the percentage comparisons that follow are approximate within the rough ranges indicated
Similar outcomes occurred in most of the twenty precincts at the western end of the 4th Council district and produced the 690 vote differential for O'Donnell.
A final note: As previously reported by LBReport.com, for the June runoff, the City Council directed a ballot rotation system (approved prior to the April election results) as a pilot project based in part on a university study of previous elections outside Long Beach that concluded a candidate whose name is listed first on the ballot can gain up to a 5% advantage. For the June runoff, the City Clerk's office implemented the ballot rotation system in a way that listed Mr. Supernaw's name second and incumbent O'Donnell's name first on the ballot and in voter guides in several historically high turnout eastern voter precincts.
Mr. Supernaw carried the majority of the eastern area precincts although Councilman O'Donnell was listed first on eight of the ten eastern area precinct ballots...while Councilman O'Donnell carried historically lower voter turnout western precincts in which he was listed second on the ballot.
LBReport.com is the only LB news outlet that was present and observed the City Clerk-ordered hand recount of ballots in the April initial election and reported the challenges (allegations) regarding a number of O'Donnell write-in ballots made by the representatives of the Watkins campaign and the LB Area Chamber's Jobs PAC. LBReport.com was the only LB news outlet that reported 4th Council district ballot issues in the June runoff and the only LB news outlet that provided "follow the money" coverage of campaign contributions (candidate and special interest/independent expenditure committees) leading up to the June runoff.
Our report above is (again) based on information that is public record.
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