| LB's COVID-19 Curve (cumulated positive test results) |
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| (April 17, 2020, 7:50 p.m.) -- A study by Stanford University scientists indicates that some people in statistically sizable numbers in the Bay Area's silicon valley were apparently exposed to the COVID-19 virus and developed antibodies to it without knowing it. The scientists say their study's findings imply that the COVID-19 infections were more widespread in that area than indicated by the number of officially confirmed cases at the time.
Their study at this link indicates a sample of roughly 3,000 Santa Clara County volunteer residents showed antibodies to COVID-19 virus at roughly fifty times the number officially known at the time to have had the virus. In their scientific paper, titled COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California, a team of Stanford University scientists conclude: "The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections." If that implication is true, then it invites a further inference that the virus is numerically less deady than currently assumed. (The abosulute number of deaths is undeniable, but its percentage among all infected persons would be lower.).The paper hasn't yet been peer reviewed. The scientists say they found antibody test results positive in 1.5% of cases and when adjusted for age and ethnicity, suggest 2.8% of people in that county had already contracted the virus. At that time (April 4-5) only 1,094 people in Santa Clara county were "officially" recorded as having the virus, but the study's findings suggest the real figure may have been between 48,000 and 81,000 people. For weeks, speculation has swirled locally that an upper respiratory "cold" that circulated in the Long Beach area in January-February 220 might have been some version of COVID-19. But there's no data on this and for now, the Long Beach Health Department says it isn't doing any serology antibody testing that might shed some light on this (indicating it's waiting for evolving tests and studies by others; full quote below by LB Health Officer.) small>[Scroll down for further.] |
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It's not yet clear from the Stanford University scientists' data if the measured antibodies convey immunity, or what amount of immunity, or for how long, or whether the virus may have mutated leaving some people with antibodies to an earlier version of the virus but unprotected from what's circulating now.
The LB Health Department isn't currently doing any serology antibody testing. At a regularly scheduled Friday April 17 City of Long Beach briefing, LB Health Officer Dr. Anissa Davis acknowledged public interest in antibody testing but said it's "really still in its infancy and there's actually very few [antibody] tests that have been FDA approved. Most tests that are out on the market right now have not been FDA approved..."
Dr. Davis noted studies are ongoing to determine the accuracy and usefulness of serology testing, and cited one recently done with the L.A. County Health Dept partnering with the USC Price School of Public Policy (random sample of 1,000 adults within 10 miles of six different testing sites.) Dr.Davis said no data from that study but said it and others like it "can help us understand the current and past prevalence in the community, how far the pandemic has progressed, and in the future may potentially inform strategies for return to work along with other plentiful data " And then said: "So at this time, the Long Beach Health Dept, is not doing serology antibody testing but this could change in the future as the testing evolves,"
Since there's no data and only speculation at this point, and in view of the level of health-related downsides for COVID-19, don't take foolish risks based on whether you had a cold or something like it a few months ago. Colds or things like them go around every year. Take all recommended measures to protect yourself and your family now.. Scientists will sort this out later.
April 17, 10:40 p.m. Text added noting that if the study's antibody numbers prove true, then it invites a further inference that the virus is numerically less deady than currently assumed. (The abosulute number of deaths is undeniable, but its percentage among all infected persons would be lower.)
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