Councilwoman Mungo Just Told 5th Dist. Residents East Division Crime Is Down 8%; Is That True And What Does That Mean And Not Mean?

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Crime Stats

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(Jan. 9, 2019, 7:10 p.m.) -- At early evening Friday (Jan. 4, 2019), 5th district Councilwoman Mungo sent a mass emailing of her periodic "Neighborly News." In its second bulleted point, Councilwoman Mungo states: "Year over year reduction in crime for East Division by 8%."

In fact checking this figure, LBREPORT.com notes:

1. "East Division" doesn't equal the "5th Council district." LBPD's East Division is a combination of three Council districts: 3+4+5. In other words, roughly 2/3 of the figure Councilwoman Mungo cited reflects conditions in two other Council districts. It's certainly possible that 5th district crime may be down by that percentage, or by a larger or smaller percentage, but it's just not supported by the figure she cited.
2. As of Jan. 9, LBPD hadn't publicly released its 2018 crime stats. We don't believe Councilwoman Mungo hallucinated the 8% decrease, because it's very close to the 8.1% decrease in LBPD's November to November data online now for Part 1 crimes (details below). But that figure excludes all Part 2 crimes, including non-aggravated assaults (no weapon used or no serious or aggravated injury); stalking, buying/receiving/possessing stolen property, vandalism, prostitution; drug abuse; indecent exposure, DUI, liquor laws, disorderly conduct (incl. disturbing the peace) and vagrancy.
LBPD publicly available data to date show that from November 2017 to November 2018, East Division (districts 3+4+5) Part 1 crimes against persons (combined murder, manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault) decreased 22.3% and Part 1 East Division crimes against property (combined residential and commercial burglary, auto burglary, grand theft, petty theft, bicycle theft, auto theft and arson) decreased 6.3%. These two Part 1 categories combined in East Division result in a mathematical decrease of 8.1% total Part 1 crime as of November 2018. (We expect the year end figure with December's data will likely be similar unless there was a major December swing up or down.)

These decreases in serious crimes are obviously noteworthy, but they don't show whether multiple categories of less serious but neighborhood impacting Part 2 crimes are up or down and if so by what amounts in East Division in total, much less any single Council district.

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LBPD tells LBREPORT.com that it's working on finalizing LB's 2018 crime stats for public release. When it does, LBREPORT.com will report it in detail...for better or worse.

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