|(Jan. 9, 2019, 7:10 p.m.) -- At early evening Friday (Jan. 4, 2019), 5th district Councilwoman Mungo sent a mass emailing of her periodic "Neighborly News." In its second bulleted point, Councilwoman Mungo states: "Year over year reduction in crime for East Division by 8%."
In fact checking this figure, LBREPORT.com notes:
- 1. "East Division" doesn't equal the "5th Council district." LBPD's East Division is a combination of three Council districts: 3+4+5. In other words, roughly 2/3 of the figure Councilwoman Mungo cited reflects conditions in two other Council districts. It's certainly possible that 5th district crime may be down by that percentage, or by a larger or smaller percentage, but it's just not supported by the figure she cited.
- 2. As of Jan. 9, LBPD hadn't publicly released its 2018 crime stats. We don't believe Councilwoman Mungo hallucinated the 8% decrease, because it's very close to the 8.1% decrease in LBPD's November to November data online now for Part 1 crimes (details below). But that figure excludes all Part 2 crimes, including non-aggravated assaults (no weapon used or no serious or aggravated injury); stalking, buying/receiving/possessing stolen property, vandalism, prostitution; drug abuse; indecent exposure, DUI, liquor laws, disorderly conduct (incl. disturbing the peace) and vagrancy.
LBPD publicly available data to date show that from November 2017 to November 2018, East Division (districts 3+4+5) Part 1 crimes against persons (combined murder, manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault) decreased 22.3% and Part 1 East Division crimes against property (combined residential and commercial burglary, auto burglary, grand theft, petty theft, bicycle theft, auto theft and arson) decreased 6.3%. These two Part 1 categories combined in East Division result in a mathematical decrease of 8.1% total Part 1 crime as of November 2018. (We expect the year end figure with December's data will likely be similar unless there was a major December swing up or down.)
These decreases in serious crimes are obviously noteworthy, but they don't show whether multiple categories of less serious but neighborhood impacting Part 2 crimes are up or down and if so by what amounts in East Division in total, much less any single Council district.
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