Our detailed aftershock forecast:
The USGS estimates the chance of more aftershocks as follows: Within the next 1 Week until 2019-07-13 15:00:00 (UTC):
The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher is > 99%, and it is most likely that as few as 240 or as many as 410 such earthquakes may occur in the case that the sequence is re-invigorated by a larger aftershock.
The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher is 96%, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 8 such earthquakes may occur.
The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher is 27%, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 2 such earthquakes may occur.
The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is 3%, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.
About our earthquake forecasts:
No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our earthquake forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area. We calculate this earthquake forecast using a statistical analysis based on past earthquakes.
Our forecast changes as time passes due to decline in the frequency of aftershocks, larger aftershocks that may trigger further earthquakes, and changes in forecast modeling based on the data collected for this earthquake sequence.