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USGS Issues UPDATED "Aftershock Forecast"; LB Can Expect To Feel Add'l Quakes, Most Smaller But Chance Of Larger One Than Fri. 7.1 Near Ridgecrest (Felt As Roller Here)


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(July 6, 2019, updated 6:15 p.m.) -- USGS has issued an UPDATED "aftershock forecast" (text below). The bottom line is that in the coming days and beyond LB can expect to feel additional earthquakes, most of them smaller but with a small chance (decreasing with time) of a larger earthquake than Friday night's 7.1 near Ridgecrest. Thursday's (July 4) 6.4 is now believed to have been a foreshock to Friday's (July 5) 7.1. Both quakes were felt as relatively light (noticeable but not damaging) rollers here as lengthier seismic waves attenuated over distance before reaching us roughly 130 miles away.

This forecast is based on data collected as of 7:55AM 2019-7-6 PDT

What we think will happen next:

According to our forecast, over the next 1 Week there is a 3% chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 7.1. It is likely that there will be smaller earthquakes over the next 1 Week, with 240 to 410 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks. Magnitude 3 and above are large enough to be felt near the epicenter. The number of aftershocks will drop off over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily.

About this earthquake and related aftershocks:

Due to the very high rate of earthquakes in the earliest part of the sequence, we are not able to count all events. The counts presented here represent what the number of events that were located by our systems and is somewhat lower than the true number that occurred.

So far in this sequence there have been 233 magnitude 3 or higher earthquakes, which are strong enough to be felt, and 4 magnitude 5 or higher earthquakes, which are large enough to do damage.

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Our detailed aftershock forecast:

The USGS estimates the chance of more aftershocks as follows: Within the next 1 Week until 2019-07-13 15:00:00 (UTC):

The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher is > 99%, and it is most likely that as few as 240 or as many as 410 such earthquakes may occur in the case that the sequence is re-invigorated by a larger aftershock.

The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher is 96%, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 8 such earthquakes may occur.

The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher is 27%, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 2 such earthquakes may occur.

The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is 3%, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.

About our earthquake forecasts:

No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our earthquake forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area. We calculate this earthquake forecast using a statistical analysis based on past earthquakes.

Our forecast changes as time passes due to decline in the frequency of aftershocks, larger aftershocks that may trigger further earthquakes, and changes in forecast modeling based on the data collected for this earthquake sequence.

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