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Updated Data Show These Increases In LB COVID-19 Hospitalizations After Early May Initial Incremental Recreational Reopenings. What's Next With Newly Allowed Multiple Business Reopenings?


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Long Beach COVID-19 Cases / Deaths
Total positives (red dots) and deaths (black dots)

Daily new reported positive cases

LB Hospitalizations (from Apr. 20): Red bars = Snapshot 12:01 a.m. Blue bars = Updated daily

(May 30, 2020) -- The City of Long Beach's updated hospitalization figures -- a metric Mayor Robert Garcia has called significant in evaluating the pace of reopenings -- have for weeks (not just in recent days) outpaced the City's daily reported hospitalization figures. In some cases, the disparities between the two figures reached 50%.

Yet while LB's hospitalizations were increasing, the City and L.A. Counthy sought [and ultimately received] approval for increased reopenings based on standards created and applied by a state agency whose director is appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom.

As displayed on the City's COVID-19 dashboard, LB's updated hospitalizations began to increase shortly after the City allowed its first incremental resumption of some recreational activities (May 8-11) including golf courses, walking trails and shoreline active recreation (not passive gatherings.) The updated hospitalization figures have remained relatively steady since mid-May,

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The screen save below from the City's COVID-19 "dashboard" displays light blue bars comparing daily hospitalizations (a "snapshot" as of 12:01 a.m. each day) with darker bar showing "updated" hospitalizations (that include admission and discharge figures subsequently provided by hospitals.) Mayor Garcia has repeatedly stated that the "updated" hospitalizations (the darker curve) is the more relevant in evaluating the pace of reopenings.


The data in table form speak for themselves. The left column shows the daily released (snapshot at of 12:01 a.m.) hospitalization figures. The right column shows the more significant updated hospitalization figures.






The cause(s) of the increased hospitalizations aren't indicated with the City-displayed numbers (and LBREPORT.com cautions against the fallacy of too quickly applying post hoc ergo propter hoc [after the fact therefore because of it.] However it is undeniable that the increases don't yet reflect the effects, if any result, from recently allowed reopenings (with COVID-19 social distancing and facial covering requirements) for in-store retail, office businesses and (with attendance limits) religious activities (May 27) and dining at restaurants and receiving hair salon barbering services with multiple COVID-19 protections (May 29) {LBREPORT.com coverage here.]

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Mayor Garcia initially said the City's actions would be based on "data" but at the City's May 29 news briefing he pivoted, stating that reopenings have to "balance" LB's COVID-19-created 25% unemployment level with public health issues...while adding public health must always come first.

Exactly who at City Hall is deciding the "balance" between the economy and public health isn't immediately clear...but it is clear that it hasn't been decided in any publicly discussed and voted action by LB's elected policy-setting City Council.

Long Beach Mayors don't have policy setting authority. The City's Health Officer (city management) can allow activities to extent allowed by Sacramento. And while the City Council can't expand activities beyond what Sacramento and the City Health Officer allow, a Council majority could presumably limit or attach conditions to otherwise allowable activities and face the political fallout pro and con.)

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Some in Long Beach have bluntly urged the City to prioritize restoring the economy regardless of possible increased COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and potential deaths. Among them is Ben Goldberg, a Mayor-appointed (recently re-appointed) member of LB's Parks & Recreation Commission. In late April Mr. Goldberg began using his personal Facebook page (in his personal, not City appointed capacity) to argue that the City should reopeni golf courses, allow other recreational activities subject to CDC guidelines and allow LB businesses to reopen by early May.

Mr. Goldberg, part of the leadership of Long Beach Area Republicans and a stalwart supporter of President Donald Trump, has echoed the President's view that the cure shouldn't be worse than the disease.

Mr. Goldberg and others leaving comments on his Facebook page have variously argued that increased COVID-19 infections are likely inevitable with reopenings; COVID-19 deaths have affected mainly the elderly in long term care facilities; the City's restrictions have flattened the "curve" for new cases allowing sufficient hospital capacity for new patients; and current restrictions invite suicides and have caused delays in necessary medical procedures. To those concerned about the public health consequences for themselves and their families, they reply: stay home.

Those views have received pushback and aren't universally shared on other social networks. Some residents have state and local officials are shrugging data they said they'd respect are moving too quickly and leting economic factors override public health..

At the May 29 city news briefing, Mayor Garcia said what happens next depends on the actions of Long Beach residents. He said residents will either act responsibly, wear face coverings and take COVID-19 protective measures, or the results could bring increased hospitalizations and ultimately prevent other small businesses from reopening or, in a worst case, require rolling back current reopenings.

The Mayor also stated a fact not frequently stated: for business reopenings to work, consumers themselves will have to feel safe,

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Support really independent news in Long Beach. No one in LBREPORT.com's ownership, reporting or editorial decision-making has ties to development interests, advocacy groups or other special interests; or is seeking or receiving benefits of City development-related decisions; or holds a City Hall appointive position; or has contributed sums to political campaigns for Long Beach incumbents or challengers. LBREPORT.com isn't part of an out of town corporate cluster and no one its ownership, editorial or publishing decisionmaking has been part of the governing board of any City government body or other entity on whose policies we report. LBREPORT.com is reader and advertiser supported. You can help keep really independent news in LB similar to the way people support NPR and PBS stations. We're not non-profit so it's not tax deductible but $49.95 (less than an annual dollar a week) helps keep us online.


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