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Here's The Document Summarizing Foster Mayoral Poll Results



(July 15, 2013, 7:40 a.m.) -- LBREPORT.com has obtained a copy of the document which was the basis for a PressTelegram story (Sat. July 13 online, Sunday July 14 in print) that a poll, apparently conducted for Mayor Foster, indicates he has what the PT called "strong leads over potential challengers" if were to seek a third term as Mayor in April 2013.

We publish the document in full below along with context and caveats.

1. The document is in the traditional campaign "to interested parties" style (effectively directed to media outlets) and doesn't include details of the underlying poll including its question tree, details regarding its polled universe and other methodology.

2. We didn't get the document from Mayor Foster. We got it through a third party who received it via email in the 10:00 a.m. hour Sat. July 13 and the PT story appeared on that paper's website a little over an hour later (and then in the paper's Sunday print edition). We didn't receive it until Sunday night.

3. The document doesn't say exactly who paid for the poll but we safely surmise it's Foster, but not his Mayoral campaign committee because (despite what the PT reported) he doesn't have a Mayoral campaign committee to our knowledge because he's not a declared candidate. Our third party source received the document in an email from Genelle Buchert, a political professional who as Buchert Development, LLC is listed among payees in 2011-2012 by the Foster for Secretary of State 2014 political committee [we believe in connection with fundraising events.] (In late 2012, as previously reported by LBREPORT.com, Foster told a televised interview that he is no longer interested in statewide office.) Since the document originated through a consulting/fundraising firm used by Foster previously, we presume the polling was done for Foster and likely paid by him.

4. We acknowledge that there is a respectable argument for not publishing what we were handed. This isn't a poll conducted by a non-involved third party. It's a document provided by a candidate or a firm paid by the candidate. It doesn't provide a number of polling details we'd like to see (that would likely be released with a third-party conducted poll) such as its question tree, its universe and other methodology. As is common with "to interested party" candidate released polling information, the candidate is basically using media outlets to serve the candidate's purposes by conveying information it believes will serve the candidate. We acknowledge this but for reasons explained below, we have chosen to publish the document in full below.

5. As is common with candidate released "to interested parties" polling summaries, the accompanying memo includes a political conclusion. After citing information it has selected, the memo states, "These are key advantages that will make it very difficult for Councilwoman Schipske or any other challenger to unseat Mayor Foster next year. He should win a third term and is likely to do so relatively easily."

From our amnesia file: during the 2012 election cycle, the Congressional campaigns for candidates Alan Lowenthal and Gary DeLong both released "polling memos" that invited disparate conclusions. The DeLong campaign said its results showed its candidate was very competitive; the Lowenthal campaign said its candidate had a double-digit lead; LBREPORT.com reported the dueling polling letters with caveats; Lowenthal ultimately prevailed in the election by over 10 percentage points.

Mayoral candidate Councilwoman Gerrie Schipske's campaign responded to the PT-reported Mayoral poll information by saying it was "pleased that the poll shows Gerrie Schipske leading all announced candidates for Mayor by a considerable margin" and adding "the [PT] story's headline implying 40% is good for an incumbent mayor could not be more incorrect. Any reputable pollster would say the opposite is true. An incumbent with well under 50% whose name is not even on the ballot is in very serious trouble." If she or other candidates have further comments now seeing the document below, we'll publish their comments as well.

LBREPORT.com has chosen to publish the document as received because we believe our savvy internet news consumers want and deserve to see details and source materials. Our general principle is to provide that level of detail as newsworthy, while also disclosing what we haven't been shown and would like to see. Below is what we were shown:

Long Beach Mayor Foster poll on possible Mayoral candidacy by lbreporter

To this we add the following: In mid-June, LBREPORT.com readers (thank you) began reporting details on what they were asked in the polling telephone calls within hours. LBREPORT.com strongly encourages readers to take notes on what they're asked and in what order and then tell us so we can report it.

An LBREPORT.com reader reported that the person on the phone:

  • Asked about Councilwoman Gerrie Schipske [candidate order may not be significant since polls usually rotate candidates' names]

  • The greatest number of questions asked were about Mayor Bob Foster running as a write-in.

  • The three candidates on which the pollster sought opinions were Foster, Schipske and Doug Otto.

  • Regarding Damon Dunn, the pollster asked, "Have you heard of Damon Dunn or his business background?" He did not ask for an opinion on Dunn.

  • The pollster also asked, "Do you know about the years of service Doug Otto has given to the community?"
  • Another reader reported receiving a call asking multiple questions focused on Bob Foster, including about public perceptions of his honesty and if he should or could be allowed to be write-in candidate.

  • There were questions about whether Long beach was better or worse off than it was "a few" or "several years" ago.

Mayor Foster hasn't said publicly if he'll seek a third term by write-in (as Mayor Beverly O'Neill successfully did) but told a televised interview (StraightTalkTV with Art Levine) in late 2012 that he'd make his decision [although not necessarily announce it] by the end of that year.

Further to follow on LBREPORT.com...and we welcome your comments below.



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