The maps haven't been formally released as drafts yet; that's scheduled for June 10 with possible changes and formal adoption by August. However, if the early maps are adopted in substantially similar form, news will break fast in the next sixty days as incumbents and challengers decide where they'll run in the 2012 elections.
LB area Congressional representative: Congresswoman Laura Richardson (D., Carson-LB) holds a House seat drawn by Dems ten years ago to elect the late Carson-based Congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald (D., Carson-LB). The soon to disappear district includes roughly 80% of Long Beach but excludes much of ELB and SE LB.
Cong. Richardson will have to decide whether to seek reelection in a newly drawn unified Long Beach-centered Congressional district OR run in the newly drawn San Pedro/Carson/Compton/Inglewood disrtict. If she chooses to run in the San Pedro/Carson/Compton/Inglewood district, she would no longer represent Long Beach.
It's not clear to us whether veteran Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D., Los Angeles) will seek the San Pedro/Carson/Compton/Inglewood seat or run in another new nearby district. Cong. Waters' current district covers part of South Central L.A. plus Westchester, Playa del Rey, Gardena, Hawthorne, Inglewood and Lawndale; it doesn't resemble any single district in the newly released meeting handout maps.
If Cong. Richardson chooses to run in the newly unified Long Beach area Congressional seat, she would encounter a number of ELB and SE LB high propensity voters in any district she previously represented...who would likely be more conservative and in many cases more Republican than voters in her current district.
Cong. Dana Rohrabacher, whose current district includes about 20% of LB (SE LB, parts of ELB and shoreline areas) in a district stretching from HB to PV, would no longer represent any parts of Long Beach.
A major unknown is how CA's new voter approved (June 2010 Prop 14) "open primary" will affect the Congressional election outcome. For the first time in a regularly scheduled primary, each party's top primary finisher won't automatically advance to a November general election. Instead, the top two primary finishers -- regardless of their party affiliations -- will advance to the November general election.
That means that the November general elections could see Dem vs. Dem, or Dem vs. Repub, or Repub. vs. Repub, or Dem vs. Libertarian, or Repub vs. Independent...or whoever finishes first and second in the primary. The effects of this in a multi-candidate primary field in the newly redrawn LB Congressional district remain to be seen.
Caveat: Supporters of Cong. Richardson have previously testified in favor of retaining the current split between two LB Congressional districts. We expect they will do so again when the Redistricting Commission takes testimony on its draft maps. There is also the possibility of court challenges by those dissatisfied with the Commission's ultimately adopted maps.
Long Beach area Assembly: Long Beach would become the focus of a single Assembly district, no longer split between a LB Assembly district that includes San Pedro and Palos Verdes (now held by Assemblywoman Bonnie Lowenthal) and a Long Beach-Carson district represented by Assemblyman Warren Furutani (both Dems).
Assemblywoman Lowenthal has previously indicated plans to seek the state Senate seat now held by her former husband, state Senator Alan Lowenthal...but his district will no longer exist; under the Redistricting Commission's meeting handout map, LB's state Senate district would stretch southward into coastal Orange County through Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa and Newport Beach. That district would be considerably more conservative and more Republican than the district Sen. Lowenthal now represents.
We speculate [stress: no inside information] that if the maps become final basically as released, Assemblywoman Lowenthal may choose to seek reelection to the Assembly in the mew LB-centered Assembly district instead of pursuing the LB-OC state Senate seat.
If that were to happen, LB City Councilman Patrick O'Donnell -- who had been mentioned as a possible Assembly candidate in 2012 (if Assemblywoman Lowenthal sought a state Senate seat) -- would have to decide whether to challenge Assemblywoman Lowenthal or pursue a third term on the LB City Council via a write in or pursue another office. A former LBPD Sergeant and "Tea Party" supporter has announced his intention to run for the 4th dist. Council seat in 2012.
Long Beach area State Senate: As indicated above LB's currently configured state Senate district would be replaced by a state Senate district that extends from Long Beach southward into coastal Orange County through Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa and Newport Beach. That State Senate district would no longer be a lock for Dems; in our view it's likely to attract Repub as well as Dem candidates, whether from OC or LB.
Again: the Commission's draft maps for Assembly, state Senate and Congressional districts aren't due for release until June 10...and (again) they're only drafts.
Further to follow on LBReport.com.
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